Ever since the Democrats have occupied the governor’s office and a majority of the Virginia House of Congress, they have planned to remain in power. The state redrew the congressional districts after the consensus in 2020, and by 2022, the districts were set. But in the recent election, Democrats have flipped 12 seats in the Virginia House of Congress, the entity that is responsible for redrawing district lines.

“One of the impacts of a gerrymandered district, or a district that is drawn to specifically benefit one party or the other, is it diminishes the importance of the general election,” social studies teacher Joshua Henry said. “As we already know from November, if a district is drawn in a way that [majority] of the people who live in the district are going to vote for Democrats, then we know who’s going to win that race.”

Historically, the Virginia House of Congress redistricts after the census every decade. However, Democrats have made an unprecedented plan to redraw district lines in 2026, mid-decade.

“Both parties do [gerrymandering] and both parties have done this for a long time,” Henry said. “The difference [between the past and now] is it typically happens once every 10 years, but the Democrats are doing this in the middle of the decade.”

In 2013, the roles were reversed. Republicans held a majority in the house and pushed for a bill to solidify district lines for the state senate early, yet due to pushback from the Democrats, their efforts failed.

“If [the] state government is controlled by Republicans, they will try to draw lines that would pack as many Republicans into a district as possible so that more districts are Republican majority,” Henry said. “That means that they would win. And if Democrats control the state government, they will try to do the same thing.”

Virginia Democrats are attempting to redistrict as the mid-term election  approaches in November as a strategy to flip Congress—currently, Republicans hold the majority.

Gov. Abigail Spanberger was initially skeptical of this proposal.

“Spanberger seemed to be a little bit against [mid-decade redistricting] before she got elected,” senior Daanial Pasha said. “But she’s trying to keep an open mind now that she’s been elected. I think it’s a strategic move showing that she really wants to prove to the Democrats inside the house that she’s open to their plans, establishing a good relationship from the get go.”

The effort to redistrict in Virginia aligns with a national trend of Democrats trying to counter Republican presence in the House of Representatives, who have also been attempting to gain more house seats in their respective states. Texas is one of the states in which the Republicans have already achieved majority seats.

“Traditionally, the incumbent party would face a setback, but because of so many of the unpopular initiatives [the Republicans] have done and the backlash towards them, they are facing additional headwinds,” said Mike Signer, Chair of the Drainsville Committee and former mayor of Charlottesville, Virginia. “The Republicans could lose control of the House of Representatives, possibly the Senate. So they have pushed a very brazen scheme to redistrict in many states, but Texas was the most important one. [In Texas, they redistricted] to reduce the number of Democratic seats and to ensure the number of guaranteed Republican seats.”

Gerrymandering can impact people’s congressional representatives and who lives in their district.

“[Virginians] might find that the congressional district that they live in, have lived in or have expected to live in, is now going to change,” Henry said. “That means that they might have a different representative or they might have a different population.”

By clustering the party votes, it nullifies the impact of the general election. At that point, the outcome would already be determined by the end of the primary election when the Democratic candidate is nominated. However, the primary is often when the most radical voters show up to the polls.

“[There] tends to be more hardcore partisan voters participating in primaries, and so they tend to elect more hardcore partisan candidates,” Henry said. “They are the people who are less interested in compromising. So if a party wants to win, and you want to get elected to Congress in a gerrymandered district, a candidate has to win the primary where they have to appeal to voters who aren’t really interested in compromising with the other party.”

Redrawing congressional districts before the 10 year period ends can also impact constituents’ attitude toward the candidates, influencing their attendance at the polls.

“There’s a risk that people will be frustrated or upset that politicians are [gerrymandering] for such blatantly partisan reasons,” Henry said. “This could cause people to sit out the election or vote for the other side.”

A decline in voter turnout will be especially true in the event people are in the minority party in the redrawn district.

“If you are somebody that is a Republican, and a district is drawn specifically to favor Democrats, that might disincentivize you to participate in elections,” Henry said. “[Gerrymandering] may also mean that the Democrats won’t be as interested in addressing the needs of the Republicans in the district.”

Mid-decade redistricting may also impact the strategies of candidates who are still deciding whether to run for office.

“[Gerrymandering] causes some uncertainty,” Henry said. “We have an election in November, so if [the Democrats] redraw lines between now and then, they’re going to have to do that soon. Otherwise, it’s going to cause a challenge for candidates to decide if they’re going to run in the primaries or not, because they don’t know what district they’re going to live in yet.”

While a lower court judge has currently blocked the Democrats’ effort to redraw Congressional maps, leaders of the party plan to appeal the ruling.

The voters will have to pass a referendum or a public vote on a proposed change on the redistricting issue as soon as April, so it can be done in time for the midterms in November.

This mid-decade redistricting ultimately sets a precedent for whenever Virginia transfers power to another party in the future.

“One of the risks of [gerrymandering this time around] is that instead of having a stable system, process and routine of redrawing congressional lines every 10 years, there will be attempts [in Virginia] to redraw these congressional district lines every time the state government changes hands,” Henry said. “Every time Democrats or Republicans switch in and out of power, which happens a fair amount, there will be a lot more uncertainty in where someone’s congressional district is and who their representative might be. This will empower the more polarizing partisan voters and candidates.”